Pot Breakdowns

As promised here is my breakdown of the three pots from which Guinea will face one team each when the draw is conducted on October 22.

Pot 1 contains the five highest seeded teams on the continent: Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana and Nigeria. This is the most difficult pot from which to choose who I would ideally like to see Guinea drawn against. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana were the two most impressive African sides at the last World Cup but were also very mediocre in the first stage of qualifying. Still each side is loaded with experienced World Cup campaigners, plus Côte d’Ivoire’s recent history against Guinea does not favor the Syli Nationale. Egypt meanwhile are twice running continental champions with a side that is very familiar with each other. However, the Egyptians have not produced in World Cup qualifying going on two decades and they can be suspect road travelers. Nigeria is probably the deepest squad and is almost untouchable at home. But they are suspect at any time to their wacky federation which could implode at any second. Cameroon meanwhile is another deep side with few weaknesses. They have one of the best keepers on the continent and one of the best strikers on the planet. There biggest weakness is probably manager Otto Pfister who is a second rate manager.

No matter who Guinea draw from this pot, it will be tough to supplant them as group winners. I think based on current form and each side’s away form I would prefer Guinea to draw either Ghana or Côte d’Ivoire. Nigeria would be my last choice, while I would prefer to face Egypt over Cameroon because I believe Cameroon to be the better travelers.

I don’t have to worry about Pot 2 as that is where Guinea is located. Fortunately so is Tunisia so there is no possibility of facing the Carthage Eagles.

In Pot 3 are some of the continents rising teams as well as some surprising faces: Benin, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Kenya and Zambia. Benin and Burkina Faso both won their groups and were two of the most impressive teams in the first group stage with Burkina Faso achieving the result of the round winning away to Tunisia. Gabon proved to be adept at home while struggling on the road. Zambia has been solid for a number of years now and are regulars at the Nations Cup. Kenya is certainly familiar with Guinea now after being paired together in the first group stage. I think the pick from this group is clearly Gabon. They will be tough at home but in Conakry it would likely be much easier. If not Gabon, I would wish to face Zambia next. While the Zambians have a lot of quality they too struggle away from home and have struggled against Africa’s elite in the last few Nations Cups. I would narrowly prefer to play the Zambians over the Kenyans. We know Guinea can beat Kenya at home but we also know they can lose away from home to them as that is what happened in their two encounters. I would be much more positive of Guinea getting a favorable result in Kenya this time around though as Guinea were in very poor form when they traveled to Nairobi back in June. I definitely want to avoid both Benin and Burkina Faso. I think Benin are more consistent and therefore more likely to keep up their form but I think Burkina Faso when they are at their best are slightly better then Benin at their best. I would thus slightly prefer to face Benin because they did not achieve any big road wins in the first stage and Burkina Faso did.

Pot 4 contains three of the least known quantities in Malawi, Mozambique and Rwanda as well World Cup finalists in Germany Togo and Nations Cup finalists in Ghana Sudan. Here are think Togo are the team to avoid because they know what it takes to make it to a World Cup. At their peak they are extremely dangerous and they also possess the best player in the Pot, Emmanuel Adebayor. Of course he does not always show up and Togo’s federation can generously be called flammable. I would rank Sudan as the next toughest squad in the group due to the fact that they qualified for the last Nations Cup and therefore we know that they have some consistency to the squad to the right now. They did get humiliated at the Nations Cup but their experience trumps Malawi’s who were very impressive in the last round with home wins against Egypt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. But I have lingering questions about how long Malawi can keep up their form. Rwanda had a very impressive win at home to Morocco in the last stage but like Malawi I’m not sure if they can sustain their form over a long period of time. Clearly though Mozambique are the pick of the draw. They are relatively consistent but do not seem to be able to pick up the big results that all the other sides are capable of. Plus I think they were in an extremely weak group Côte d’Ivoire aside. I think Gambia, Angola and Uganda are all more deserving of this spot and had they been switched with Mozambique they would have gone through as to the final stage while Mozambique would not have.

With all that said here is my ideal group draw:
Ghana
Guinea
Gabon
Mozambique

And here is the worst case scenario in my opinion:
Nigeria
Guinea
Benin or Burkina Faso
Togo

Ultimately I think the key is for Guinea to not get drawn with Benin or Burkina Faso. If they can avoid those two sides then their chances of making it to their first ever World Cup is much better. I think they will qualify for the Nations Cup no matter what the group draw is so I’m not too worried about that, but I want the World Cup, not the Nations Cup thus the Pot 3 draw is probably the most important. If they can get one of the weaker teams on paper from Pot 3 it increases their chances because it gives them a better chance at picking up road wins. And it is on the road where the men are separated from the boys.