As for Burkina Faso they were one of the two sides I wanted to avoid out of Pot 3 along with Benin. It didn’t happen but no matter. While the Burkinabe were mightily impressive in the last stage, they also have a penchant for going awol. In qualification for Germany, Burkina Faso were pushovers in their group. They failed miserably in trying to make the Nations Cup in Ghana this year. They did finally wake up this term though and recorded the most impressive win of the first group stage by toppling Tunisia in Tunisia. If that Burkina Faso shows up then Guinea are in for two very tough encounters. However, that Burkina Faso may disappear once again. With the Burkinabe you just never know.

Finally lets discuss Malawi. The Flames of Malawi were one of the surprise qualifiers for the final stage out performing a more well regarded Democratic Republic of the Congo. At home the Malawians were most impressive, even shocking two times reigning African champions Egypt. They were not as good on the road which is to be expected. Malawi are not a well known side by any means but that did not stop Togo or Angola from qualifying for Germany as we know. Take them lightly at your own risk would be my advice to Guinea as well as Cotê d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso. The big question with Malawi as it is with Burkina Faso is can they keep up their level of play? We will find out beginning in March of 2009.

This group gives Guinea a very good shot at making it to South Africa. Granted they will have to perform better than they did in the last group stage but that should not be too difficult. It also gives Guinea a decent shot of not even making it to Angola though. Cotê d’Ivoire should be favored in this group but in my opinion this group is wide open and any of the four sides could go through.

Here is the match schedule:

March 28, 2009 away to Burkina Faso
June 6, 2009 home to Cotê d’Ivoire
June 20, 2009 home to Malawi
September 5, 2009 away to Malawi
October 10, 2009 home to Burkina Faso
November 14, 2009 away to Cotê d’Ivoire

I will have some more thoughts posted this weekend.

No matter who Guinea draw from this pot, it will be tough to supplant them as group winners. I think based on current form and each side’s away form I would prefer Guinea to draw either Ghana or Côte d’Ivoire. Nigeria would be my last choice, while I would prefer to face Egypt over Cameroon because I believe Cameroon to be the better travelers.

I don’t have to worry about Pot 2 as that is where Guinea is located. Fortunately so is Tunisia so there is no possibility of facing the Carthage Eagles.

In Pot 3 are some of the continents rising teams as well as some surprising faces: Benin, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Kenya and Zambia. Benin and Burkina Faso both won their groups and were two of the most impressive teams in the first group stage with Burkina Faso achieving the result of the round winning away to Tunisia. Gabon proved to be adept at home while struggling on the road. Zambia has been solid for a number of years now and are regulars at the Nations Cup. Kenya is certainly familiar with Guinea now after being paired together in the first group stage. I think the pick from this group is clearly Gabon. They will be tough at home but in Conakry it would likely be much easier. If not Gabon, I would wish to face Zambia next. While the Zambians have a lot of quality they too struggle away from home and have struggled against Africa’s elite in the last few Nations Cups. I would narrowly prefer to play the Zambians over the Kenyans. We know Guinea can beat Kenya at home but we also know they can lose away from home to them as that is what happened in their two encounters. I would be much more positive of Guinea getting a favorable result in Kenya this time around though as Guinea were in very poor form when they traveled to Nairobi back in June. I definitely want to avoid both Benin and Burkina Faso. I think Benin are more consistent and therefore more likely to keep up their form but I think Burkina Faso when they are at their best are slightly better then Benin at their best. I would thus slightly prefer to face Benin because they did not achieve any big road wins in the first stage and Burkina Faso did.

Pot 4 contains three of the least known quantities in Malawi, Mozambique and Rwanda as well World Cup finalists in Germany Togo and Nations Cup finalists in Ghana Sudan. Here are think Togo are the team to avoid because they know what it takes to make it to a World Cup. At their peak they are extremely dangerous and they also possess the best player in the Pot, Emmanuel Adebayor. Of course he does not always show up and Togo’s federation can generously be called flammable. I would rank Sudan as the next toughest squad in the group due to the fact that they qualified for the last Nations Cup and therefore we know that they have some consistency to the squad to the right now. They did get humiliated at the Nations Cup but their experience trumps Malawi’s who were very impressive in the last round with home wins against Egypt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. But I have lingering questions about how long Malawi can keep up their form. Rwanda had a very impressive win at home to Morocco in the last stage but like Malawi I’m not sure if they can sustain their form over a long period of time. Clearly though Mozambique are the pick of the draw. They are relatively consistent but do not seem to be able to pick up the big results that all the other sides are capable of. Plus I think they were in an extremely weak group Côte d’Ivoire aside. I think Gambia, Angola and Uganda are all more deserving of this spot and had they been switched with Mozambique they would have gone through as to the final stage while Mozambique would not have.

With all that said here is my ideal group draw:
Ghana
Guinea
Gabon
Mozambique

And here is the worst case scenario in my opinion:
Nigeria
Guinea
Benin or Burkina Faso
Togo

Ultimately I think the key is for Guinea to not get drawn with Benin or Burkina Faso. If they can avoid those two sides then their chances of making it to their first ever World Cup is much better. I think they will qualify for the Nations Cup no matter what the group draw is so I’m not too worried about that, but I want the World Cup, not the Nations Cup thus the Pot 3 draw is probably the most important. If they can get one of the weaker teams on paper from Pot 3 it increases their chances because it gives them a better chance at picking up road wins. And it is on the road where the men are separated from the boys.

Pot 1: Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana and Nigeria
Pot 2: Algeria, Guinea, Mali, Morocco and Tunisia
Pot 3: Benin, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Kenya and Zambia
Pot 4: Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Sudan and Togo

I’ll have further analysis later in the week when I break down my preferences for who I want Guinea drawn with.

Guinea was aided by the return of Kémoko Camara who ended his brief international retirement by minding the nets for Guinea. His defense was marshaled by Bobo Baldé and Oumar Kalabane. Kamil Zayatte, Ibrahima Camara and Ibrahima Diallo were also in the back of a line up featuring heavily on defenders. In midfield were the trio of captain Pascal Feindouno, Mamadou Bah and Fodé Mansaré providing service for strikers Ismaël Bangoura and Mallorca’s Alhassane Keita.

It was Guinea who had everything to play for and they took the game to Kenya. Ismaël Bangoura scored his 5th goal of qualifying with an assist from Fodé Mansaré who reined havoc on Kenya’s flanks in 32nd minute. That was the score at the half.

Guinea did not relent in the second half and doubled the lead in the 61st minute via a Mamadou Bah header on a corner kick. Guinea was dangerous from set pieces the entire game and finally made Kenya pay with Bah’s header. Guinea’s size would also earn them their 3rd goal of the contest this time from a Kamil Zayatte header. Zayatte’s goal in the 71st minute effectively killed off the contest though Kenya did claw a goal back in the 81st minute. A second Kenya goal in the 93rd flattered the visitors and made the match seem tenser then it really was. In reality Guinea had sealed the sealed the victory with 20 minutes left to play and simply relaxed. They were never in any danger of throwing away the win.

The win meant Guinea became the final nation to make it into the final 20 eliminating Gambia in the process. The next stage of qualifying will be composed of 5 groups of 4 teams with the winner advancing to the World Cup in South Africa. The top 3 teams in each group will earn a berth in the African Cup of Nations in 2010 held in Angola. Joining Guinea in the next round are most of the usual suspects as well as a few surprise packages such as Gabon, Mozambique, Rwanda and Malawi.

The next important date for Guinea is October 22nd when the draw for the final group stage will be held. I will have more news leading up to that date including what the seedings will be and who Guinea could draw and who I want them to draw.

For now onwards march the Syli Nationale!

It would be almost unthinkable for Guinea to stumble out of World Cup qualifying at this point but that is what happens when you stumble out of the blocks in a very tough group. Guinea put themselves in this position with a slow start and an inability to defeat Zimbabwe away.

If this match was away then I would write off Guinea’s chances. Being at home gives them a sizable edge not to mention more quality in the side. However, it is Kenya who have performed from the get go and deserve to be in first place. If Guinea expects a walk in the park then they are going to be in for a big shock.

I expect Guinea to come out with a very attacking lineup as they have no choice but to win. They should have all the impetus and unleash an unrelenting onslaught on the Kenyan goal. If they can get out to an early lead then they can control the match and relax a bit. The longer the match stays deadlocked the more likely it is that Guinea will expose themselves at the back and press without suitable defensive coverage.

In the end with everything on the line and a rapturous crowd I expect the Syli Nationale to deliver. They know what this match means and they know that heads will roll if they fail. Robert Nouzaret’s job is almost certainly on the line. Guinea’s strength is in their attacking players. It is in attack where they have failed so far. Their attack will come good against Kenya emphatically. I predict a 4-1 victory for Guinea with two goals each for Ismaël Bangoura and talisman Pascal Feindouno. Maybe a tad optimistic but I cannot imagine Guinea faltering at this stage of World Cup qualification.

Feindouno, now 27 years old, has been part of the national team set up through most of the decade and has played a pivotal role at three African Cup of Nations as well as a pivotal role in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup so far. With Guinea desperate for a victory heading into their third qualifying match back in June away to Namibia it was Feindouno who stepped to the plate and scored one of two goals in a massive 2-1 victory against Namibia. He again shined in the reverse fixture a week later scoring the opening goal in a 4-0 rout of the Namibians. While it was Ismaël Bangoura who was the star of the show with a hattrick, it was Feindouno who got Guinea off the mark as he so often does.

Feindouno has repeatedly proven his worth at Africa’s showcase event, the African Cup of Nations. Guinea of course are three times running quarterfinalists and Feindouno has been a big part of that. He scored 2 goals in the 2004 edition, 4 in 2006 and another 2 earlier this year. His total of 8 goals in the competition makes him one of the all time leading goal scorers in Nations Cup history. And considering his age he should continue to climb up that chart.

Feindouno is a supremely talented player, I don’t think anyone would object to that. Unfortunately he is also one of those all too common talented players that is a total headcase and erratic on the pitch. On his day Feindouno can be a match winner (see Guinea’s defeat of Morocco in the 2008 Nations Cup). However, on his day he is equally capable of self-destructing (see Guinea’s defeat of Morocco in the 2008 Nations Cup). That match against Morocco saw Feindouno score from a brilliant free kick, put Bangoura through for a goal on an impeccable through ball and convert the eventual winner from the penalty spot. Of course he also stupidly earned himself a two match ban for kicking a Moroccan player. A ban that would play a fundamental part in the 5-0 annihilation Guinea suffered against Cotê d’Ivoire in the quarterfinals.

You just never know what you are going to get with Feindouno which makes him even more dangerous. He may go the entire game without making his presence known but he is still one of those of players who can undo a defense in an instant after being invisible the whole game. While he is not at the Lionel Messi or Totti level, he still strikes fear in opposing defenses and is always a danger man.

One of his greatest strengths is his versatility. He can play as an out and out striker, as a playmaker or out on the wing. His ability to be employed in various roles on the pitch makes it easier to accommodate other attacking players without having to leave one of them on the bench. For Guinea he typically plays as a striker or playmaker. At whatever role he tends to find the back of the net.

At club level, Feindouno is currently at Ligue 1 outfit Saint-Etienne or is he? Yesterday his agent announced that he had moved to Qatari club Al-Sadd. Saint-Etienne claims he is still their player though Feindouno will seemingly be boycotting the club’s next match against Bordeaux. Just another indication of Feindouno the headcase. Despite being a major part of one of Saint-Etienne’s best seasons in decades culminating with a place in the Uefa Cup, Feindouno wants to move to the international wilderness that is the Qatari league. It is a move that is all about the money and nothing about progressing as a player. If he wanted to make a move to a bigger club in Europe then it would surely be more beneficial to play out the season with Saint-Etienne and display his skills in France and Europe (where he already has a goal in the Uefa Cup). If he just wants the money then Qatar is the better option. I hope he stays in France but that seems like it will only end in a messy divorce with Feindouno in self-imposed footballing exile.

Despite these club antics, Feindouno clearly wears the Syli Nationale shirt with pride. I can’t recall ever reading anything about him refusing an international call up. While many African nations like Togo, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa face constant battles with their star players boycotting matches, Guinea has never had to worry about that with Feindouno. He may sometimes still be a headcase in the Guinea shirt or a non-entity in a match, but at least he is always there playing for his country.

Just like he will be in October when Guinea have their crux qualifier against Kenya. A win or face the wrath of a nation match. A match in which all Guinea supporters will expect Feindouno the match winner. It is just another opportunity for Feindouno to be a national hero. An opportunity I suspect he will not slip through his fingers. Feindouno knows this is probably his last chance at going to a World Cup and he will not let Guinea crash out this early. Too bad he seems intent on sabotaging Saint-Etienne’s season.

He has been one of the two pivotal figures in Guinea’s World Cup qualifying campaign along with Guinea captain Pascal Feindouno. Bangoura scored Guinea’s first goal of qualifying in Windhoek against Namibia in a 2-1 victory. Then his best ever outing in the Guinea shirt in the following fixture at home against Namibia saw Bangoura record a hat-trick as Guinea routed the Namibians 4-0. His four goals through five games so far represents one of the best totals in Africa to this point. Bangoura will certainly be counted on to put one or more shots in the back of the net in the upcoming do or die home match against Kenya. A game Guinea has no choice but to win if they want to advance to the next stage of qualifying.

Bangoura is equally deadly in front of goal at club level for Ukrainian giants Dynamo Kyiv. In his debut season with the club in 2007-8 he scored a whopping 15 goals in just 20 appearances in the Ukrainian league. He also proved his worth on the European stage by adding an additional three goals in four games for the Ukrainians in the group stage of the Champions League. Prior to arriving in Kiev he played for Le Mans in France and scored 18 goals over the preceding two seasons. All told Ismaël has shown himself to be a proven goal scorer wherever he plays, be it for his country, his clubs in France and Ukraine and in European competition.

At just 23 years of age Bangoura figures to be the future of the Syli Nationale. As he continues to gain experience he is likely to become one of the best players ever to come out of Guinea and has a very real chance to become the country’s greatest ever star.

His reputation and accolades will be tempered however should Guinea fail to defeat Kenya and thus miss out not only on the World Cup but also the African Cup of Nations. The thought of Guinea not being in the Nations Cup is unthinkable to fans of the Syli Nationale as they are currently three times running Quarterfinalists in Africa’s showcase event.

South Africa fielded for the most part a reserve squad made up of younger players and thus it was not a full strength team. That also seems to be the case for Guinea. While I have not been able to find the full line up of players used most of the names I have seen so far are not regular first teamers. Though one report did state that Pascal Feindouno and Ismaël Bangoura almost linked up for a goal late in the game. If those two did play I would suspect they came on as substitutes.

Young goalie Youssouf Toure minded the nets for the Syli Nationale and by all accounts played very well coming up with a couple of tough saves. Other players that got on the pitch were reserves Larsen Toure, Algassimou Balde who was booked, Minka Yady Camara and Aboubacar Camara.

The game was played in front of a largely empty crowd as only 2,000 supporters showed up to cheer South Africa who were eliminated from the African Cup of Nations over the weekend. Guinea took the lead in the 18th minute through a powerfully stroke shot from outside the box. There is some discrepancy as to who scored the goal. Most sources claim it was Minka Yady Camary while Fifa’s small review of the game says it was Aboubacar Camara. Whatever the case may be it was supposedly a well taken goal and deserved lead for Guinea.

That would be the only score of the contest though South Africa had two goals disallowed for offsides including one in the dying minutes. By all accounts it was a poor showing from South Africa though they did pick up steam late in the game and got some encouraging performances from some of their younger players.

For Guinea the result has little meaning but should provide the team with some confidence following the draw in Harare. If this victory gives them that extra bit of belief heading into the crucial match in Conakry against Kenya then it will have had all the meaning in the world.

I think it is a match Guinea should win since South Africa are really in crisis mood at the moment. Even if they lose it isn’t a big deal as long as their performance is not too appalling. Hopefully I will be able to post a report of the friendly in the next few days. Since the match involves South Africa it should not be too difficult to find out about the match.

As expected it was Zimbabwe who dominated the early exchanges in the game and had the best attempts on goal throughout the first half. Guinea keeper Naby Yattara was forced into making a number of saves both from the run of play and from set pieces. Yattara was given the nod in goal ahead of Youssouf Toure in Guinea’s first competitive fixture since the international retirement of long time first choice keeper Kémoko Camara. Zimbabwe striker Gilbert Mushangazhike was the main culprit for Zimbabwe’s missed chances. In the 23rd minute Zimbabwe thought they took the lead but Mushangazhike’s headed goal was correctly disallowed for offside.

Guinea began to get more involved late in the first half as captain Pascal Feindouno headed over the bar and Ibrahima Bangoura shot over the bar. The second half was more evenly poised as neither side came too close to goal. Guinea’s chances of picking up a win were pretty ended when substitute Amara Bangoura saw straight red for a tackle in the 74th minute. The Guinea defense coped well despite being down a man and the only real chance the rest of the way for Zimbabwe was a free kick in stoppage time that Yattara dealt well with. For a full match report of the game go here.

While Guinea certainly was hoping for a win the draw leaves them in a good enough position. While it is now impossible for Guinea to move on as one of the 8 best second placed teams they can still win the group. The final match of the round is next month at home in Conakry against group leaders Kenya. If Guinea win that game which the faithful home crowd will expect then Guinea win the group and advance. Anything else and Guinea will face an embarrassing exit from World Cup and African Cup of Nations qualifying.

In the other game of the group Kenya saw off Namibia in Nairobi 1-0 courtesy of a Mohammed Jamal penalty shortly before halftime. The result eliminates Namibia and moves Kenya two points clear of Guinea. Unlike Guinea, Kenya can advance as a second placed team so a loss in Conakry would not necessarily prove fatal to their chances. Still they certainly go for the win. Kenya delivered in front of their home fans this weekend and it will be Guinea’s turn against the Harambee Stars next month.

The Syli Nationale should be up to the task. All that is left is for them to deliver.