It would take a fool to bet on Guinea getting the result they need this weekend. The National Team is in complete shambles. New manager Mamadi Souare has further belabored this point by calling up his brother Ibrahima Souaré who is currently club-less.

Here is the full call up list:

Goalkeepers:
Kemoko Camara (Cholet, France)
Naby Yattara (Arles-Avignon, France)

Defenders:
Dian Bobo Balde (Valenciennes, France)
Kamil Zayatte (Hull City, England)
Oumar Kalabane (Vestel Manisaspor, Turkey)
Mamadou Diallo (Diyarbakirspor, Turkey)
Ibrahima Camara (Le Mans, France)
Morlaye Cissé (FC Mulhouse, France)
Ibrahima Diallo (SC Charleroi, Belgium)

Midfielders:
Alseny Camara (Châteauroux, France)
Kanfory Sylla (Istanbul B.B, Turkey)
Kevin Constant (Châteauroux, France)
Mamadou Dioulde Bah (Strasbourg, France)
Samuel Johnson (Talaea El Geish, Egypt)
Pascal Feindouno (Al Rayyan Club, Qatar)
Ibrahima Souaré (unattached)
Naby Laye Soumah (Horoya, Guinea)

Strikers:
Alhassane Keita (Mallorca, Spain)
Kaba Diawara (Arles-Avignon, France)
Ibrahima Bangoura (Denizlispor, Turkey)
Ismaël Bangoura (Stade Rennais, France)
Fodé Mansaré (Toulouse, France)
Souleymane Youla (Eskisehirspor, Turkey)

Few surprises here except for the aforementioned Ibrahima Souaré and possibly Naby Soumah. Basically the same group of players who are responsible for the sides current predicament. Though, to be fair they are the best players the National team has to offer. Unfortunately they either have not gelled as a team or they just don’t give a crap. I will go with both.

If Guinea are to have any chance then the captain Feindouno will have to show up in a big way. He is more than capable of doing so but he is also more than capable of having absolutely no impact. Ismaël Bangoura will also need to perform up to his abilities and probably needs to contribute at least one goal.

Probably the only thing Guinea has going for it is that their opponents have nothing to play for but pride. The Elephants have already qualified for their second consecutive World Cup and are likely to play some players who would otherwise not have featured. Nonetheless their squad is still loaded with talent and certainly deeper than Guinea’s squad.

So will the Syli Nationale show pride and shock their opponents who have dominated them over the last three years? Or will their capitulation come full circle?

I certainly think their capitulation comes full circle and Côte d’Ivoire humiliate them once again, this time around 4-0. Happiness for the people of Guinea has been in short supply recently following the military junta’s brutal crackdown on peaceful protests in September and the aftermath of the incident. Regardless of the result of the national team’s match this weekend lets hope the Guinean people can get a government that actually respects the wishes of the people and human rights. At the end of the day that is what really matters.

Guinea has a better pool of players to choose from, not even the most ardent of Malawian fans can dispute that. But when they are on the pitch together this group of Guinean players has been shambolic. Malawi have admittedly not been much better but they have been better.

Thus entering the final found of fixtures Guinea must get at least a point away to Côte d’Ivoire and hope Burkina Faso win at home against Malawi in this scenario. If Malawi draw then Guinea must win. If Malawi wins then Guinea will stunningly miss out on the Nations Cup for the first time since 2002.

The safe money is on Guinea missing out. The only saving grace is that Côte d’Ivoire have nothing to play for. Though I very much question whether the Guinean players care about making it to the Nations Cup. If they did they would have secured their spot by now.

So the national team is currently in shambles. Manager Titi Camara was sacked after only a few games in charge. The current caretaker manager is not likely to last long either.

Where to go from here for the Syli is a great question. It would certainly appear that major changes are needed. What those changes are will have to be determined by the FA. For now rock bottom has been all but reached. It will be confirmed come the final fixture in November.

For now congrats to Malawi on taking over the third spot. You deserve to hang on to it though I will still be hoping that Guinea somehow awaken and exorcise their demons against Côte d’Ivoire and steal the final Nations Cup place. That hardly looks like happening though.

Part 1 takes place on Sunday in Conakry. In their own backyard the Syli figure to have a substantial advantage. Malawi have had considerable struggles on the road throughout their history and this edition of World Cup qualifying has been no different. Aside from a win in Djibouti which hardly counts as Djibouti are the very definition of minnows.

If Guinea cannot defeat the Malawians at home then all will be lost. Assessing the two sides impartially reveals that Guinea are the better side. Their history is better, their recent history is better and their players are better. But better means nothing once the two teams take the pitch. Malawi proved that at home against Egypt last year. It is being better on the pitch that matters and all too frequently the team that is better ends up on the losing side.

The Syli Nationale most not allow this to happen on Sunday. With a new manager in Guinea legend Titi Camara all the players on the pitch must show they deserve to continue wearing the Guinea shirt. Ismaël Bangoura must find the back of the net, Pascal Feindouno must cease being the prima donna and be the magisterial playmaker he has been in the past, the back four must stop getting carved to pieces. Every player’s place in the team is on the line and some lesser capped players figure to take the pitch.

Now is the time to prove that Guinea can still be a force and can make it four consecutive quarterfinals at the Nations Cup in Angola.

On the road I would be worried, at home I am confident Guinea will take the first step towards Angola with aplomb.

Prediction: Guinea 3-0

The big question is why didn’t the managerial change occur sooner? With the players apparently having already quit on Nouzaret the football federation should have made the decision earlier. Instead they waited a match too late as the World Cup is now out of reach.

The qualifier from this group will be either Côte d’Ivoire or Burkina Faso whom are both on maximum points. It is now time for Guinea to turn their attentions on saving face and making it to Angola for the 2010 Nations Cup. The next two fixtures against Malawi should determine who makes it to Angola. On paper Guinea have the better team, but paper means nothing. Guinea should defeat the poor traveling Malawians at home. Away will be trickier but Guinea should be able to win in Malawi as well. In reality it may come down to just how fragile Guinea’s psyche is and how much will they have to make it to Angola. Malawi is not likely to quit. Guinea may well throw in the towel. Hopefully the players have too much pride for such a capitulation. We will find out soon.

Cote d’Ivoire are not the ideal opponent for a must win for this Guinea side. A side that has conceded a whopping 12 goals in their last 4 matches. A Cote d’Ivoire side that humiliated them 5-0 in Ghana at the 2008 Nations Cup. They also beat them in a friendly last fall. Guinea will have to conquer some demons in Conakry if they are to beat Cote d’Ivoire this weekend.

The pressure is on the players as well as manager Robert Nouzaret who will almost certainly be sacked in the event of a loss and maybe in the event of a tie as well. Guinea have brought most of the big names with the notable exceptions of the injured Fode Mansare and Alhassan Bangoura who has not been selected. Other than that it is a pretty standard squad. Experienced with some gifted attackers but also that same porous defense.

With their World Cup campaign on the line which Guinea side will show up? Does it even matter? While Guinea are more then capable of toppling Cote d’Ivoire if they play up to their potential that does not mean that I think that will happen. More likely Guinea’s defense will be reduced to shambles again and the home crowd will go home angry. Though it should be noted that Cote d’Ivoire failed to win a road match in the previous round against less than stellar opposition in Botswana, Madagascar and Mozambique. I think Cote d’Ivoire shows up and wins this game 3-1. I hope I am wrong but the Syli Nationale do not inspire confidence at the moment. Maybe Sunday they will change that.

Had they lost 1-0 or even 2-1 my tune would be much different. But they didn’t. They lost 4-2. Once again their defensive frailties were exploited to full effect. In two friendlies prior to this match Guinea gave up three goals in each match. They also gave up two goals in their previous qualifier to Kenya. That match was at home. That is more than enough evidence to show that Guinea’s porous defense is just that porous. So much so that any real chance of qualifying for the World Cup went down the drain in Ouagadougou.

Burkina Faso went after Guinea early like expected knowing that a quick goal could potentially open the flood gates. They got that quick goal courtesy of Mahamodou Kere in the 23rd minute. Guinea’s defense capitulated from that point on. Alain Traore added a rapid fire second goal in the 30th minute. Guinea’s defense conceded an early penalty kick in the second half and Momouni Dagano capitalized from the spot for 3-0. Guinea did quickly pull a goal back from the penalty spot courtesy of Pascal Feindouno but in an act of defiance Burkina Faso responded equally quickly, once again via the lethal Momouni Dagano to make it 4-1. Kamil Zayatte added a meaningless goal four minutes from time to get the final score.

That Guinea wilted after the first goal is little surprise. I’m sure the Burkinabe players were hoping for just that outcome and they got it. Obviously Guinea needs to make some changes at the back but whether they have the options is another matter. Guinea started a number of defensive players but it didn’t help in preventing the Burkinabe onslaught on their goal. One option is to weed out old warriors like Bobo Baldé and Oumar Kalabane who have served the national team proudly for the past decade for younger players. Whether such younger players exist to slot in and form a sturdier defense is in question though. Still it seems like it is a worth the shot.

One thing I know is that the next fixture, at home to Côte d’Ivoire does not figure to go well if Guinea’s defense continues on the path it has been on over the last six months as well as in their most recent encounters with Côte d’Ivoire. A win in Conakry would revive their World Cup hopes which are on life support at the moment but such a result seems out of the question after yet another defensive catastrophe.

For the inconsistent Guineans it is chance to prove they can win big matches on the road and maybe even be a consistent force. A win for Guinea in Ouagadougou would be a statement victory indicating their desire for World Cup football rather than Nations Cup football. If Guinea are to truly challenge the favored Cote d’Ivoire for the World Cup spot then their ambitions must be no less than three points in Ouagadougou.

The problem is Burkina Faso are not expected to just lay down. Arguably the most impressive side in the last round of qualifying, Burkina Faso did not lose a single match, winning 5 and drawing once. They also had the result of the round by toppling Tunisia away from home coming back for 1-0 down with about ten minutes to go thanks to CFR Cluj striker Yssouf Kone. It is Kone and Mamouni Dagano who scored a whopping 7 goals in the prior round who will lead the Burkinabe attack.

Burkina Faso will probably come out guns blazing trying to put the Syli Nationale on the defensive right away. The Stallions probably know an early goal could cause the Syli to wilt as has happened in the past. Especially with Guinea’s poor defensive record in recent outings.

While Burkina Faso were undoubtebly one of the most impressive sides in the last stage, like Guinea they are known to blow hot and cold. Unlike Guinea when they blow cold, they blow really cold. In the last World Cup qualifiers Burkina Faso never posed a challenge after the fixture and quickly fell by the wayside. Their cold streak lasted through the 2008 Nations Cup qualifiers as they were not a factor in qualifying and failed to appear. Burkina Faso went dormant for a number of years but were a revitalized force in the round. Which Burkina Faso appears today will be a major factor in the outcome of today’s match.

For Guinea it is there defense which is most worrisome. They have given up goals galore of late and it will be up to Kamil Zayatte, Bobo Baldé, Mamadou Bah, Ibrahima Camara and whoever else features to be rocks at the back and frustrate the Burkinabe into poor execution. Should the defense hold firm then Guinea have a chance to take control of the game with their plethora of attacking options. Even those options are somewhat uncertain with Fodé Mansaré and Ismaël Bangoura not at full fitness and Ibrahima Yattara returning to the squad after a long lay off, Guinea still should have enough creating cover through Kanfory Sylla, Alhassane Keita, Karamoko Cisse, Soulyemane Youla and of course the talismanic captain himself Pascal Feindouno. Per usual it will be up to Feindouno to lead his compatriots to a massive victory. When Feindouno puts on the Guinea shirt he almost always rises to the occasion and delivers a massive performance. The same is expected of him today.

Today’s match while only the first of six may be the most pivotal for Guinea. A loss would make a point away to Cote d’Ivoire an absolute must, maybe even all three and the corresponding home fixture in Conakry would require nothing less than full points. The margin for error is eliminated for the Syli Nationale with a loss today. If Guinea want to make it to the World Cup then they will make a statement to Cote d’Ivoire as well as Malawi for that matter by emerging from Ouagadougou as conquerors.

My own expectations are that I have no clue what will happen. If Burkina Faso play to the level they did in the prior stage then I expect them to defeat Guinea. But I also doubt the Burkinabe’s ability to keep up that standard. If I have to make a prediction I’d go with a thrilling 2-2 draw.

Defenders: Mamadou Dioulde Bah (Racing Starsbourg, France), Alghassimou Balde (AS Cannes, France), Dianbobo Baldé (Glasgow Celtic, Scotland), Jean Habib Balde (Reims, France), Alseny Camara (Chateauroux, France), Ibrahima Camara (Le Mans, France), Alimou Diallo (Sivasspor, Turkey), Oumar Kalabane (Manisaspor, Turkey), Kamil Zayatte (Hull City, England)

Midfielders: Aboubacar Mbaye Camara (Lokeren, Belgium), Kevin Constant (Chateauroux, France), Fodé Mansaré (Toulouse, France), Mohamed Sacko (Etoile Sahel, Tunisia), Kanfory Sylla (Sivasspor, Turkey), Larsen Toure (Grenoble, France)

Strikers: Amara Kaba Bangoura (Valenciennes, France), Ismael Bangoura (Dynamo Kiev, Ukraine), Karamoko Cisse (Albinoleffe, Italy), Pascal Feindouno (Al Saad, Qatar), Alassane Keita (Mallorca, Spain), Ibrahima Yattara (Trabzonspor, Turkey), Souleymane Youla (Eskiesehirspor, Turkey).

It is a pretty standard list of Syli Nationale regulars. One exception is the recall of Ibrahima Yattara who has not worn the national team shirt in quite some time. Yattara is one of the more talented Guinean players so he will be an asset and his recall was a wise decision. Especially because of the fitness concerns of Fodé Mansaré and Ismaël Bangoura. Mansaré has not appeared for Toulouse in over a month and Bangoura just recently returned from an injury layoff with Dynamo Kiev. With those two in doubt and not likely to be able to go 90 minutes it could very well mean Yattara will start the match. Souleymane Youla is also back with the squad after missing the last round of qualifiers due to injury. It is Youla’s first meaningful national team call up since the Nations Cup in 2008.

All in all a very solid squad with no glaring omissions despite the fitness doubts of Mansaré and Bangoura.

I will hopefully have a match preview up by Saturday.

As for Burkina Faso they were one of the two sides I wanted to avoid out of Pot 3 along with Benin. It didn’t happen but no matter. While the Burkinabe were mightily impressive in the last stage, they also have a penchant for going awol. In qualification for Germany, Burkina Faso were pushovers in their group. They failed miserably in trying to make the Nations Cup in Ghana this year. They did finally wake up this term though and recorded the most impressive win of the first group stage by toppling Tunisia in Tunisia. If that Burkina Faso shows up then Guinea are in for two very tough encounters. However, that Burkina Faso may disappear once again. With the Burkinabe you just never know.

Finally lets discuss Malawi. The Flames of Malawi were one of the surprise qualifiers for the final stage out performing a more well regarded Democratic Republic of the Congo. At home the Malawians were most impressive, even shocking two times reigning African champions Egypt. They were not as good on the road which is to be expected. Malawi are not a well known side by any means but that did not stop Togo or Angola from qualifying for Germany as we know. Take them lightly at your own risk would be my advice to Guinea as well as Cotê d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso. The big question with Malawi as it is with Burkina Faso is can they keep up their level of play? We will find out beginning in March of 2009.

This group gives Guinea a very good shot at making it to South Africa. Granted they will have to perform better than they did in the last group stage but that should not be too difficult. It also gives Guinea a decent shot of not even making it to Angola though. Cotê d’Ivoire should be favored in this group but in my opinion this group is wide open and any of the four sides could go through.

Here is the match schedule:

March 28, 2009 away to Burkina Faso
June 6, 2009 home to Cotê d’Ivoire
June 20, 2009 home to Malawi
September 5, 2009 away to Malawi
October 10, 2009 home to Burkina Faso
November 14, 2009 away to Cotê d’Ivoire

I will have some more thoughts posted this weekend.